Preparing For Origins And SCG Chicago

goblinpiledriverwallpaper

Preparing For Origins And SCG Chicago

It’s a good time for celebration.  The full spoiler of Origins was released today and can be found here.  I’ve been doing some light testing on Cockatrice leading up to this moment, but the real nitty gritty will begin soon as my crew puts in the prep work required to do well in Chicago on July 18th.  These last few days have felt like the culmination of a many great things for Magic, as the core set looks great, I will be playing in an Open at release which is my favorite time do one, and I’ve signed up for two pre-release flights.  This set evokes thoughts of the great days of this game, giving each color some fantastic tools from classic times and new ones that should be solid build-arounds.

When preparing to design or modify a new Red deck, I always think it’s important to look at history.  I majored in history in college and it was always one of my favorite subjects, as I think there’s valuable and often overlooked lessons there.  There are some games that are very much affected by trends, and Magic is no different.  Take March Madness Basketball for instance, where a 12 seed almost always beats a 5 seed in the opening round.  Predictability can give you edges, so let’s look at some possibilities for the world of tomorrow:

– Red Aggro is usually a great choice for week 1.  People are trying new brews that are not tuned, it’s easy to form a competitive shell based on curve and past decks, and you can expect a portion of old archetypes to prey upon.  The one large weakness of this fact is that people prepare for this, and can sometimes include extra hate for Aggro as a result.

– The past tier 1 decks are still probably the best decks for day 1, and likely will win the tournament.  You’re almost always guaranteed to see a new brew in the top 8 or top 16, but unless the new set is radically different it’s hard to get it right in the first week.

– There are exceptions to the rule.  As Magic evolves and players research more, these trends can flip on their head, so it’s important to keep your sideboard as open as possible and your maindeck as streamlined as possible.  For instance, I attended the first SCG Open when Khans of Tarkir came out, and this set felt very different.  It was based around the wedges, and the card choices were very obvious for what to build-around.  As a result, the top 8 were almost exclusively new archetypes.  Additionally, Mono Red was largely hated out at the Open I attended and only put up marginal results at the other Open.  Cards like Siege Rhino are tough to deal with, and the Red decks didn’t take into account how powerful he was.

The Decks Of Yesterday

Lets take a look at what Red Aggro decks performed best in the last four Opens with a base set (yes, Origins is not a base set persay and nothing is rotating, but it looks to have a fairly big impact)

Khans of Tarkir Release Weekend

Mono Red Aggro
Ben Schoenbrun
9th Place at StarCityGames.com Standard Open on 9/27/2014
Standard

Creatures (22)

4 Akroan Crusader
4 Firedrinker Satyr
4 Foundry Street Denizen
4 Goblin Rabblemaster
4 Monastery Swiftspear
2 Mogis’s Warhound

Lands (20)

20 Mountain

Spells (18)

4 Dragon Mantle
3 Hammerhand
2 Searing Blood
4 Stoke the Flames
4 Titan’s Strength
1 Hall of Triumph

Sideboard
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
2 Coordinated Assault
2 Magma Spray
2 Searing Blood
1 Hall of Triumph
2 Hammer of Purphoros
2 Arc Lightning

Theros Release Weekend

Mono-Red Aggro
Philip Bertorelli
1st Place at StarCityGames.com Standard Open on 9/29/2013
Standard

Creatures (29)

4 Ash Zealot
4 Boros Reckoner
4 Burning-Tree Emissary
4 Chandra’s Phoenix
4 Fanatic of Mogis
4 Firefist Striker
1 Gore-House Chainwalker
4 Rakdos Cackler

Lands (21)

21 Mountain

Spells (10)

4 Lightning Strike
4 Magma Jet
2 Shock

Sideboard
4 Frostburn Weird
4 Burning Earth
1 Hammer of Purphoros
2 Chandra, Pyromaster
4 Mizzium Mortars

Return to Ravnica Release Weekend

R/B Aggro
Steven Wu
12th Place at StarCityGames.com Standard Open on 10/7/2012
Standard

Creatures (25)

4 Ash Zealot
4 Falkenrath Aristocrat
4 Gore-House Chainwalker
4 Rakdos Cackler
3 Stonewright
4 Vexing Devil
2 Zealous Conscripts

Lands (23)

15 Mountain
2 Swamp
2 Blood Crypt
4 Dragonskull Summit

Spells (12)

4 Searing Spear
4 Flames of the Firebrand
4 Pillar of Flame

Sideboard
3 Annihilating Fire
3 Electrickery
2 Rakdos Charm
3 Appetite for Brains
2 Mizzium Mortars
3 Traitorous Blood

Innistrad Release Weekend

Mono-Red Aggro
David Doberne
1st Place at StarCityGames.com Standard Open on 10/2/2011
Standard

Creatures (20)

3 Chandra’s Phoenix
2 Goblin Arsonist
3 Grim Lavamancer
2 Hero of Oxid Ridge
2 Spikeshot Elder
4 Stormblood Berserker
4 Stromkirk Noble

Planeswalkers (3)

3 Koth of the Hammer

Lands (23)

23 Mountain

Spells (14)

4 Shrine of Burning Rage
4 Brimstone Volley
3 Incinerate
3 Arc Trail

Sideboard
1 Sword of War and Peace
2 Perilous Myr
2 Hero of Oxid Ridge
3 Manic Vandal
4 Vulshok Refugee
1 Arc Trail
1 Traitorous Blood
1 Mountain

Each of these decks share some common traits as part of the winning formula of Red Aggro.  Looking at them in brief:

– They have a healthy ratio of creatures to spells.  By the numbers 22/18, 29/10, 25/12, 20/14.  You need to pave the way for your creatures to get through, and you need to have spells to finish them off at those low life totals when your creatures get stonewalled.

– All four decks have a sideboard that is slanted towards winning Aggro mirrors (again expecting that opening weekend), as well as a smidge of anti-Midrange, and the rest for Control.

– All of them follow a tight, aggressive curve and play lots of four-ofs to stay consistent and redundant.  Their curves as follows:

Schoenbrun
1cc:  16 (creatures) ; 11 (spells) ; 27 (total)
2cc:  2 (creatures) ; 2 (spells) ; 4 (total)
3cc:  4 (creatures) ; 1 (spells) ; 5 (total)
4cc: 4 (spells) ; 4 (total)
Lands:  20

Bertorelli
1cc:  4 (creatures) ; 2 (spells) ; 6 (total)
2cc:  13 (creatures) ; 8 (spells) ; 21 (total)
3cc:  8 (creatures) ; 8 (total)
4cc: 4 (creatures) ; 4 (total)
Lands:  21

Wu
1cc:  11 (creatures) ; 4 (spells) ; 15 (total)
2cc:  8 (creatures) ; 4 (spells) ; 12 (total)
3cc:  4 (spells) ; 4 (total)
4cc: 4 (creatures) ; 4 (total)
5cc:  2 (creatures) ; 2 (total)
Lands:  23

Doberne
1cc:  11 (creatures) ; 11 (total)
2cc:  4 (creatures) ; 10 (spells) ; 14 (total)
3cc:  3 (creatures) ; 4 (spells) ;  7 (total)
4cc: 2 (creatures) ; 3 (spells) ;  5 (total)
Lands:  23

Ranges and Averages (rounded up)
1cc:  4-16 (creatures) ; 11 (avg), 0-11 (spells) ; 4 (avg)
2cc:  2-13 (creatures) ; 7 (avg), 2-10 (spells) ; 6 (avg)
3cc:  0-8 (creatures) ; 4 (avg), 0-4 (spells) ; 2 (avg)
4cc:  0-4 (creatures) ; 3 (avg), 0-4 (spells) ; 2 (avg)
5cc:  0-2 (creatures) ; 1 (avg), 0 (spells) ; 0 (avg)
lands:  20-23 ; 22 (avg)

This data is not something that can design you the perfect deck or the perfect numbers, but the trends and how much you have to pay attention to curve is relevant.  Different sub themes can push you slightly one way or the other, but they all share the same base formula.  Also just as a fun amalgamation, if you total the averages up you get 40 cards and 22 lands.  Pretty close to the norm, and you could probably just shave a land and a card to make the final amalgamation.

I’m hoping this data is useful from a brewers standpoint for the upcoming opening weekend (July 18th), as it should keep one from leaning too hard in one direction.

Red in Origins

Core sets tend to be deep in valuable Red cards, with the last one bringing us Goblin Rabblemaster, Stoke the Flames, Chandra, Pyromaster, Frenzied Goblin, and Hammerhand.  There’s no shortage of that in Origins, with almost every card getting at least a hesitation of consideration by me for some archetype or another.  Lets look at “some” of the potential standouts:

abbotofkeralkeep

Abbot of Keral Keep

Pros:  Acceptable stats, mechanic that Red can easily support, late game value
Cons:  His greatest ability is terrible on turn 2, which means he’s probably not a 4-of in most lists.  His Stats are OK but not impressive
Verdict:  Probably good in a middle to bigger shell at lower numbers, but has a lot of competition

acolyteoftheinferno

Acolyte of the Inferno

Pros:  Looks like a total bomb in Limited, extremely good aggressive abilities
Cons:  Too costly to make an impact in Standard most likely
Verdict:  Early play/pick in Limited

AvariciousDragon

Avaricious Dragon

Pros:  Great card advantage that can be utilized with burn and cheap creatures.  Good way to stay in the long game.  Helps Dragon themed decks.
Cons:  The downsides are pretty bad.  You don’t get to use him first turn, yet you do discard your hand.  Your opponent can kill him on your turn or theirs to negate all value aside from eating one of their removal spells.
Verdict:  I’ve seen him splashed as a 1-2 of in early lists, and typically he’s one of the last cards you’ll play when you’ve got them on the ropes or vice versa.  That’s probably the most I’d do with him, but I personally think this guy is a big bust.  Being that he has a Howling Mine for Red though does hold some weight.

Chandrafireofkaladesh

Chandra, Fire of Kaladesh // Chandra, Roaring Flame

Pros:  Turning her on just involves any pump spell and connecting for damage.  Her planeswalker mode both protects herself to an extent as well as puts your opponent on a very quick clock.  Her ultimate is scary and real.
Cons:  Her stats are low for her mana cost.  She’s congested in a low to the ground deck at 3 mana.  She has to deal damage in order to flip and requires a second card to do so.
Verdict:  I strongly believe there is a deck or two for her out there, but she does require work.  The earliest stuff that I’ve seen or toyed with have involved Atarka’s Command, Titan’s Strength, and Hammerhand, but finding where she makes sense is a challenge.

EmbermawHellion

Embermaw Hellion

Pros:  Sort of a Hellrider.  Trample and a big butt that dodges a share of removal.  Possible finisher.
Cons:  High mana cost which makes cards like Stormbreath Dragon just better for now in most situations.  Lack of haste and the fact that many Red decks don’t want a five drop hurt this card a lot.
Verdict:  I think it’ll be a bulk rare, but that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t want to brew with it.  If anything, I think this card will have potential post-rotation if a shell can be found.

exquisitefirecraft

Exquisite Firecraft

Pros:  Makes Control players cringe.  Potentially playable in all formats.  Good damage rate.  Easy to turn on Spell Mastery.  Straight upgrade in some sideboards over cards currently seeing play.
Cons:  Sorcery speed is a big knock, and 3 mana is a lot for some decks to add another spell of that cost.  It doesn’t hit the five toughness creatures that rule Standard at the moment.
Verdict:  This card is good, and it will see play.  Buy them now before it becomes the next Stoke the Flames at rare.

goblinglorychaser

Goblin Glory Chaser

Pros:  Menace has always been an incredibly strong ability in Red, even before it got its own word.  Rarely do you see this ability tacked onto a 1/1.  He potentially enables the Goblin archetype in Standard.  He’s just a one mana 2/2 in many games.  He’s been impressive in playtesting.
Cons:  He’s potentially just good in Goblins and nothing else, it’s not easy to turn him on in every matchup, his stats are unimpressive when he’s not Renowned.
Verdict:  He’s a staple in Standard Goblins, but probably nowhere else.  He should see play in other Red decks if options become limited.

goblinpiledriver

Goblin Piledriver

Pros:  His rate is insane.  He’s protection from every Red Mage’s most hated color (suck on that Master of Waves!).  He single-highhandedly enables the Goblin archetype in Standard and Modern.
Cons:  Goblins is a fragile archetype by nature.  It makes you play less removal in your deck and makes your deck more susceptible to sweepers.
Verdict:  I didn’t get to play with him in Standard the first time around, but have seen his power in Legacy.  In early playtesting, I’ve seen this power again.  He is glorious and I hope many an opposing mage gets Piledrive’d on opening weekend.  His impact on Modern could be enough to make Goblins into a Tier 1 archetype.

Mage-ringbully

Mage-Ring Bully

Pros:  Another Prowess card for Red is always welcome, and his stats are agreeable for that.  Playable two drops aren’t always plentiful, so even something worth outside consideration here is a pro.
Cons:  His drawback is only bad some of the time.  His stats and lack of other abilities are his big limiting factor, and that he lacks haste.
Verdict:  I think this guy will actually see play.  He’s super solid in limited for aggressive decks, but even in Standard there’s enough Prowess cards that something could be made here.  The question is will he make the cut since you may just want to play other Prowess creatures over him.

magmaticinsight

Magmatic Insight

Pros:  Essentially a cheaper Tormenting Voice which has already seen play.  This one has a minimal drawback and the mana cost difference is probably all the difference.  Potentially playable in all formats.  A card that Combo archetypes welcome.
Cons:  Sorcery speed, still has a built-in drawback.  Won’t fit in every shell, it requires the right build.
Verdict:  I’m exceptionally happy to see this printed, it’s a Red card I would play in many builds.  It does require a lot of critical thinking when it comes to where best to use the card, but I don’t think it will take long for this to get adopted.  Storm probably wants it, possibly Life from the Loam decks, and just Red decks seeking to have some card filtering.

MoltenVortex

Molten Vortex

Pros:  Possible sideboard card for Legacy Burn, or just a ton of Red decks in general.  Great rate, prevents flood, is an enchantment which makes it harder to deal with, sneaks under counterspells.
Cons:  Damage output and real cost of ability might limit where it gets played.
Verdict:  A+, this card is likely to see play by me on opening weekend, and even if not I’ll be wanting to pick up my set soon.  It’s really easy to get the train rolling and it’s just a superb value card.  Maybe that’s a new thing for Wizards; print the word Vortex on a Red card and let the good times roll.

Piaandkirannalaar

Pia and Kiran Nalaar

Pros:  Very good rate, exceptional board presence, mini Siege-Gang Commander.  Ability can trigger with any artifact, making it a solid build-around card.  The tokens have evasion.
Cons:  High competition at the four drop spot, many people believe this card is relegated to a build-around theme, not quite the same as Siege-Gang Commander.  Legendary.
Verdict:  I said early on this was my favorite card of the set and I’m still of that mindset.  I know this requires the right shell and the right format for it to breathe, but this rate is strong and Siege-Gang is quite powerful.  I think over Magic’s history people don’t realize how good Siege-Gang is because he’s always been an inexpensively priced card that takes a lot of mana to get going.  Pia is both cheaper in mana cost as well as being great alongside either a heavy token theme or an artifact theme.  She’s a great blink target.  The evasion in my opinion is quite relevant.  I think she’ll get dogged by a lot of players which is precisely when a card’s potential rises in my mind.  Don’t sleep on this one.

ravagingblaze

Ravaging Blaze

Pros:  Another Searing Blaze/Blood effect.  Way to get out of jams and also end the game on the spot, especially at Instant speed.
Cons:  Bad enough rate to limit it to mostly a finisher.  Burn decks aren’t likely to want it, which would relegate it to Standard.
Verdict:  This card certainly intrigues me.  I could see a lot of spots where it’s a later game Burn spell that kills their best creature at their end step and then allows you to swing in for the win with your army.  I like the design, and I like that it forces you to think about possible routes to go with it.  I think this card will see play, but it will take some crafty Red mages to make it work properly.

scab-clanberserker

Scab-Clan Berserker

Pros:  A Control player’s nightmare.  Eidolon number 2, YES PLEASE.  Haste makes it much better, but probably would have been good even without it.  Potential include for Red Devotion in Standard.
Cons:  Getting renowned isn’t a given, and without it his rate is unexciting.  This will exclude him from some maindecks as well as some archetypes (Goblins), but probably not sideboard.
Verdict:  This is my second favorite card of the set and I think it’s a staple for a long time running.  Eidolon had a gigantic impact on all three formats and Scab-Clan is just as good but even better alongside of an Eidolon.  This is almost a snap-include against Control in most formats.  Having to connect with your opponent is a real downside, but the upsides are so high all around that I still think this card is going to be exceptional.  In my first few test games with him (in a Devotion shell), my Control opponent saw both an Eidolon and him come down and in private chat just put “WTF is that.   Reading.   Yeah game 3.”

seismicelemental

Seismic Elemental

Pros:  Ends the game with most Aggro decks that can support a five drop.  Absolute limited all-star.
Cons:  Stats are a little poor, might not see Standard play, doesn’t stop fliers from blocking.
Verdict:  This card has a great design, building a Magmatic Chasm into a Fire Elemental.  I’m looking forward to trying him in some shells, and could see him as a 1-of out of some boards.  Potentially more if the right shell allows.

SkyrakerGiant

Skyraker Giant

Pros:  An always good rate for Limited for a Red card.  Reach is a very unusual ability for Red to have, and helps a lot in limited as Skies is always a deck.
Cons:  Not playable in Constructed
Verdict:  Great limited card for Red, thought it was worth mentioning just because of the rareness and importance of Reach

subterraneanscout

Subterranean Scout

Pros:  Enables Goblin Piledriver and Goblin Rabblemaster to punch through Midrange and Aggro decks.  Stats are fine on curve.  Can combo with other creatures that pump.
Cons:  Bad by himself, not a terribly great rate, little value beyond his initial ETB trigger.  Congested at the two drop spot.
Verdict:  He’s an autoplay in Standard Goblins, possibly Modern, but he’s not a card I’d like to have 4-of in many decks.  Making your Goblin unblockable is also not always going to win you the game, but I do love that they printed him as he is an important enabler.

thopterengineer

Thopter Engineer

Pros:  Combos well with Pia and Kiran Nalaar and the latter clause on the card could be an archetype enabler.  Establishes good board presence.
Cons:  Not a particularly great rate for aggressive strategies.  You have to build around this one.
Verdict:  If there’s a Thopter deck, or even some kind of Artifacts deck in some format, this card probably has a home.  It looks fun for EDH too (ThoptAAAARRRS!)

Updating Standard

Since it’s early in the brewphase, I don’t have a decklist “ready” yet for the SCG.  Much testing has to happen, so keep an eye out on my social media for Streaming or updates.  That said, let’s look at two existing archetypes from last weekend and what possible updates could slot into them:

Goblins (Old)

Mono-Red Goblins
Bobby Birmingham
6th Place at StarCityGames.com Standard Open on 6/27/2015
Standard

Creatures (16)

4 Foundry Street Denizen
4 Frenzied Goblin
4 Goblin Rabblemaster
4 Monastery Swiftspear

Lands (20)

20 Mountain

Spells (24)

4 Obelisk of Urd
4 Lightning Strike
4 Stoke the Flames
4 Titan’s Strength
4 Dragon Fodder
4 Hordeling Outburst

Sideboard
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Searing Blood
1 Hall of Triumph
4 Roast
2 Scouring Sands

The biggest notable additions to this deck from Origins are Goblin Glory Chaser, Goblin Piledriver, and Subterranean Scout.  Mardu Scout also becomes a consideration since it combos well with both Piledriver and Rabblemaster, although the two-drop spot is heavily congested.  If we do a some swaps, the new list looks like so:

Mono-Red Goblins (New)
John Galli

Creatures (16)

4 Foundry Street Denizen
3 Frenzied Goblin
4 Goblin Glory Chaser
4 Goblin Piledriver
1 Subterranean Scout
3 Goblin Rabblemaster

Lands (20)

20 Mountain

Spells (24)

4 Obelisk of Urd
4 Lightning Strike
4 Stoke the Flames
4 Titan’s Strength
1 Hammerhand
4 Dragon Fodder

Sideboard
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Searing Blood
1 Hall of Triumph
4 Roast
2 Scouring Sands

The challenge of course here is that Obelisk of Urd is much better when it’s a surprise.  Birmingham was able to catapult to the top 8 of the SCG Open in Baltimore last weekend due to this factor, but that’s not to say you don’t still gain insane value in many games.  I’ve played with and against Obelisk many times, and there’s a lot of times where you just can’t do anything about it aside from try to remove creatures and race.  Birmingham was also taking advantage though of a format that was light on Aggro, so you may have to plug in more Burn or Falter effects for opening week.

Red Devotion (Old)

Mono-Red Devotion
Dylan Hysen
7th Place at StarCityGames.com Standard Open on 6/27/2015
Standard

Creatures (28)

1 Ashcloud Phoenix
4 Dragon Whisperer
4 Fanatic of Mogis
4 Flamewake Phoenix
3 Goblin Rabblemaster
4 Stormbreath Dragon
4 Thunderbreak Regent
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel

Lands (25)

21 Mountain
1 Haven of the Spirit Dragon
3 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx

Spells (7)

4 Draconic Roar
3 Crater’s Claws

Sideboard
3 Stoke the Flames
4 Wild Slash
4 Anger of the Gods
4 Roast

I really like Dylan’s list, with the notable exception being that I think it’s a little soft to Abzan and that Crater’s Claws is only good in spots.  I think it wants some number of maindeck Roasts, or some creatures exchanged out, but Devotion is a tricky deck to get just right.  There’s also the possibility of splashing White or Black here for pretty big value.  His sideboard might look strange to some, but he’s covering the three levels of the format (Control, Aggro, Midrange) with the best cards to suit each of those matchups.  It’s tough to board in a lot of cards for a Devotion deck, so these are basic problem solvers to strengthen beyond Game 1.  Here’s some possible builds for the future:

Mono-Red Devotion (New)
John Galli

Creatures (28)

4 Dragon Whisperer
4 Fanatic of Mogis
4 Flamewake Phoenix
4 Scab-Clan Berserker
4 Stormbreath Dragon
4 Thunderbreak Regent
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel

Lands (25)

21 Mountain
1 Haven of the Spirit Dragon
3 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx

Spells (7)

4 Draconic Roar
3 Crater’s Claws

Sideboard
2 Molten Vortex
1 Goblin Rabblemaster
4 Wild Slash
4 Anger of the Gods
4 Roast

RB Devotion (New)
John Galli

Creatures (28)

4 Dragon Whisperer
4 Fanatic of Mogis
4 Flamewake Phoenix
3 Scab-Clan Berserker
4 Stormbreath Dragon
4 Thunderbreak Regent
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel

Lands (25)

4 Temple of Malice
4 Bloodstained Mire
2 Wooded Foothills
2 Evolving Wilds
1 Swamp
8 Mountain
1 Haven of the Spirit Dragon
3 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx

Spells (7)

4 Draconic Roar
4 Murderous Cut

Sideboard
1 Roast
2 Molten Vortex
4 Wild Slash
4 Anger of the Gods
4 Self-Inflicted Wound

Big Red (New)
John Galli

3 Zurgo, Bellstriker
4 Monastery Swiftspear
3 Lightning Berserker
1 Frenzied Goblin
2 Ire Shaman
1 Abbot of Keral Keep
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Goblin Rabblemaster
2 Pia and Kiran Nalaar
1 Ashcloud Phoenix
1 Stormbreath Dragon

4 Wild Slash
2 Roast
4 Lightning Strike
1 Exquisite Firecraft
1 Chandra, Pyromaster

22 Mountain

Sideboard
2 Roast
1 Avaricious Dragon
1 Magma Spray
2 Searing Blood
2 Arc Lightning
1 Harness by Force
3 Scab-Clan Berserker
1 Smash to Smithereens
1 Ashcloud Phoenix
1 Exquisite Firecraft

As Always,

Keep Tapping Those Mountains,

– Red Deck Winning

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One thought on “Preparing For Origins And SCG Chicago

  1. Wouldnt Kolaghans Command be more relevant than Murderous Cut in RB Devotion?

    I would leave a 2/2 ratio in the main and one extra of each in the sideboard.

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